New US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran has restored operational access to the vast majority of its missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh concerns inside Washington about Tehran’s enduring military capabilities despite repeated public claims from the Trump administration that Iran’s forces had been severely crippled.

According to a report by The New York Times, assessments reviewed by senior officials earlier this month show Iran currently has operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The findings suggest that Iran’s military infrastructure remains substantially intact and capable of threatening American naval forces and commercial shipping in one of the world’s most important energy transit corridors.

The classified intelligence reportedly paints a far different picture from the administration’s public narrative following Operation Epic Fury, the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign launched on Feb. 28 against Iranian targets.

President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have repeatedly described Iran’s military as “decimated” and effectively neutralized. On 9 March, ten days into the conflict, Trump told CBS News that Iran’s missile arsenal had been reduced “to a scatter” and that the country had “nothing left in a military sense.” Weeks later, at a Pentagon briefing on April 8, Hegseth said the operation had rendered Iran “combat-ineffective for years to come.”

But intelligence gathered through satellite imagery, surveillance systems, and other classified collection methods appears to contradict those statements.

Officials familiar with the assessments said Iran retains roughly 70 percent of its mobile missile launchers nationwide, as well as approximately 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile. The remaining arsenal includes both ballistic missiles capable of striking targets across the Middle East and cruise missiles designed for shorter-range attacks against land or maritime targets.

The assessments also conclude that Iran has restored access to nearly 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities across the country. Many of those facilities are now considered “partially or fully operational,” according to people briefed on the findings.

Particularly troubling to some US officials is Iran’s continued ability to maneuver mobile launch systems from within hardened missile complexes along the Strait of Hormuz. Intelligence suggests that, depending on the level of damage at individual sites, Iranian forces can relocate missiles to alternate launch positions and, in some cases, fire directly from existing launchpads within the facilities themselves. Only three of the 33 missile sites along the strait are currently assessed to be completely inaccessible.

The new findings add to growing questions inside Washington over whether US and Israeli planners underestimated Iran’s capacity to absorb damage and rapidly restore military operations.

Previous reporting cited by US media outlets had already suggested that Tehran’s missile capabilities survived the campaign to a greater extent than initially acknowledged publicly. The New York Times previously reported that US officials believed Iran could recover as much as 70 percent of its prewar missile strength.

The latest assessments now underscore the strategic challenge facing the White House should the fragile month-old cease-fire collapse and hostilities resume.

According to The New York Times, the US military has already depleted its stocks of many critical munitions, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptor missiles, and Precision Strike and ATACMS ground-based missiles, and yet the intelligence suggests that Iran retains considerable military capability, including around the vital Strait of Hormuz.